{"id":5539,"date":"2008-03-31T23:51:00","date_gmt":"2008-03-31T15:51:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lungchuntin.com\/blog\/%e6%af%94%e8%bc%83%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8%e5%8f%8a-tim-harford-%e6%9b%b8%e6%9c%ac%e4%bb%8b%e7%b4%b9\/"},"modified":"2008-03-31T23:51:00","modified_gmt":"2008-03-31T15:51:00","slug":"%e6%af%94%e8%bc%83%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8%e5%8f%8a-tim-harford-%e6%9b%b8%e6%9c%ac%e4%bb%8b%e7%b4%b9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lungchuntin.com\/blog\/%e6%af%94%e8%bc%83%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8%e5%8f%8a-tim-harford-%e6%9b%b8%e6%9c%ac%e4%bb%8b%e7%b4%b9\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u8f03\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u53ca Tim Harford \u66f8\u672c\u4ecb\u7d39"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u9f8d\u5ac2\u807d\u4e86\u6211\u7684\u721b gag "\u9999\u8549", "\u516c\u4ed4\u9eb5" \u4e4b\u5f8c, \u5979\u4e5f\u627e\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0, \u8aaa\u9019\u4e9b gag \u597d\u5f97\u591a\u4e86, \u6240\u4ee5\u53c8\u548c\u5927\u5bb6\u5206\u4eab\u4e00\u4e0b.<\/p>\n

\u505a\u4e00\u6b21\u6587\u6284\u516c, \u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u662f\u5728\u860b\u679c\u65e5\u5831\u6284\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684, \u6211\u60f3\u5927\u5bb6\u9664\u4e86\u7559\u610f\u6dfb\u54e5\u7684 gag \u4e4b\u5916, \u4e5f\u60f3\u5927\u5bb6\u7559\u610f\u4ed6\u6240\u5beb\u7684\u66f8. \u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d, \u660e\u5929\u5c31\u53bb\u627e\u627e. <\/p>\n

\u5e0c\u671b\u7d66\u6211\u627e\u5f97\u5230\u5427! \u5982\u679c\u6709\u4eba\u770b\u904e\u7684\u8a71, \u4e5f\u60f3\u8acb\u4f60\u8a55\u8ad6\u4e00\u4e0b Tim Harford \u7684\u66f8\u662f\u5426\u770b\u5f97\u904e.<\/p>\n

<\u4ee5\u4e0b\u8f49\u5be6\u81ea\u860b\u679c\u65e5\u5831><\/p>\n

\u300c \u751c \u5fc3 \uff0c \u6c42 \u4f60 \u5ac1 \u7d66 \u6211 \u5427 \uff01 \u300d \u6dfb \u54e5 \u5411 \u5973 \u53cb \u8aaa \u3002
\u5973 \u53cb \u5ff8 \u6029 \u5730 \u53cd \u554f \uff1a \u300c \u70ba \u4f55 \u6211 \u8981 \u5ac1 \u7d66 \u4f60 \uff1f \u300d
\u6dfb \u54e5 \u4e00 \u672c \u6b63 \u7d93 \u5730 \u8aaa \uff1a \u300c Well \uff0c \u5f9e \u7d93 \u6fdf \u5b78 \u89d2 \u5ea6 \u770b \uff0c \u4f60 \u5ac1 \u7d66 \u6211 \uff0c \u662f \u4e00 \u7a2e \u7406 \u6027 \u884c \u70ba \uff0c \u4f60 \u6bcf \u65e5 \u8981 \u505a \u5f88 \u591a \u4e8b \u52d9 \uff0c \u6211 \u4e5f \u4e00 \u6a23 \u3002 \u7d50 \u4e86 \u5a5a \u5927 \u5bb6 \u4fbf \u53ef \u4ee5 \u5206 \u5de5 \u5408 \u4f5c \uff0c \u9019 \u6a23 \u53ef \u63d0 \u5347 \u6548 \u7387 \uff0c \u9019 \u5c31 \u662f \u7d93 \u6fdf \u5b78 \u4e4b \u7236 \u4e9e \u7576 \u53f2 \u5bc6 \u592b \u63d0 \u51fa \u7684 \u7406 \u8ad6 \u91cd \u5fc3 \u7cbe \u795e \u6240 \u5728 \u3002 \u300d
\u5973 \u53cb \u807d \u4f86 \u6c92 \u8da3 \uff0c \u6beb \u7121 \u6d6a \u6f2b \uff0c \u65bc \u662f \u6666 \u6c23 \u5730 \u8aaa \uff1a \u300c \u5ac1 \u7d66 \u4f60 \u90fd \u597d \uff0c \u4e0d \u904e \uff0c \u689d \u4ef6 \u662f \u5bb6 \u52d9 \u8981 \u5169 \u500b \u4eba \u5206 \u64d4 \u3002 \u300d
\u6dfb \u54e5 \u7b54 \uff1a \u300c \u4f60 \u6709 \u6240 \u4e0d \u77e5 \uff0c \u751c \u5fc3 \uff0c \u7d93 \u6fdf \u5b78 \u4e0a \u6709 \u500b \u540d \u8a5e \u53eb \u300e \u6bd4 \u8f03 \u7d93 \u6fdf \u300f \uff0c \u505a \u4e00 \u4ef6 \u5de5 \u4f5c \u8981 \u5c08 \u6ce8 \uff0c \u6548 \u7387 \u624d \u6703 \u9ad8 \uff0c \u6240 \u4ee5 \u6211 \u5011 \u7576 \u4e2d \uff0c \u4e00 \u500b \u8981 \u5168 \u8077 \u5de5 \u4f5c \uff0c \u53e6 \u4e00 \u500b \u8981 \u5168 \u65e5 \u505a \u5bb6 \u52d9 \u3002 \u300d<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

\u5c07 \u7d93 \u6fdf \u5b78 \u878d \u5165 \u751f \u6d3b<\/h3>\n

\u5973 \u53cb \u8d8a \u807d \u7d93 \u6fdf \u7406 \u8ad6 \u8d8a \u4e0d \u8010 \u7169 \uff0c \u8aaa \uff1a \u300c \u90a3 \u9ebc \u4f60 \u5168 \u8077 \u505a \u5bb6 \u52d9 \u597d \u4e86 \uff0c \u7537 \u5973 \u5e73 \u7b49 \u561b \uff0c \u6211 \u5011 \u5973 \u4eba \u5de5 \u4f5c \u80fd \u529b \u4e0d \u6bd4 \u7537 \u4eba \u4f4e \u554a \uff01 \u300d
\u6dfb \u54e5 \u7b11 \u4e86 \uff0c \u9053 \uff1a \u300c \u4e0d \u8981 \u751f \u6c23 \uff0c \u6211 \u7d55 \u5c0d \u4e0d \u5c0f \u770b \u4f60 \u7684 \u5de5 \u4f5c \u80fd \u529b \uff0c \u53ef \u662f \u6211 \u5011 \u7537 \u4eba \u505a \u5bb6 \u52d9 \u7684 \u80fd \u529b \uff0c \u9060 \u4f4e \u65bc \u5973 \u4eba \uff0c \u6839 \u64da \u300e \u6bd4 \u8f03 \u512a \u52e2 \u300f \u7406 \u8ad6 \u5206 \u5de5 \u57fa \u790e \uff0c \u5728 \u65bc \u80fd \u529b \u7684 \u76f8 \u5c0d \u5dee \u7570 \uff0c \u5373 \u662f \u8aaa \uff0c \u5373 \u4f7f \u4f60 \u5de5 \u4f5c \u548c \u5bb6 \u52d9 \u5169 \u65b9 \u9762 \u80fd \u529b \u90fd \u6bd4 \u6211 \u597d \uff0c \u4f46 \u6211 \u505a \u5bb6 \u52d9 \u7684 \u80fd \u529b \u6975 \u5dee \uff0c \u6240 \u4ee5 \u505a \u5bb6 \u52d9 \u7684 \u91cd \u4efb \uff0c \u6700 \u597d \u4ea4 \u7d66 \u4f60 \u3002 \u300d
\u7d93 \u6fdf \u639b \u5e25 \uff0c \u7121 \u5398 \u60c5 \u8da3 \uff0c \u662f \u6dfb \u54e5 \uff08 Tim Harford \uff09 \u7684 \u672c \u8272 \uff0c \u9019 \u6a23 \u6c42 \u5a5a \u7684 \u6210 \u529f \u7387 \u6709 \u591a \u9ad8 \uff1f \u4e0d \u77e5 \u9053 \uff0c \u4f46 \u9019 \u6a23 \u7684 \u751f \u6d3b \u54f2 \u5b78 \uff0c \u4ee4 \u4ed6 \u5beb \u6210 \u300a The logic of Life \u300b \uff08 \u300c \u751f \u547d \u7684 \u908f \u8f2f \u300d \uff09 \uff0c \u9019 \u672c \u5c07 \u7d93 \u6fdf \u5b78 \u878d \u5165 \u751f \u6d3b \u7684 \u66a2 \u92b7 \u66f8 \uff0c \u65e5 \u52e4 \u65e9 \u524d \u4ecb \u7d39 \u7684 \u300a Predictably Irrational \u300b \uff08 \u300c \u53ef \u9810 \u6e2c \u7684 \u975e \u7406 \u6027 \u300d \uff09 \u8aaa \u7684 \u662f \u4eba \u7684 \u975e \u7406 \u6027 \uff0c \u540c \u6642 \u51fa \u7248 \u7684 \u751f \u6d3b \u7684 \u908f \u8f2f \uff0c \u504f \u504f \u6253 \u5c0d \u53f0 \uff0c \u529b \u8b49 \u4eba \u985e \u884c \u70ba \u7406 \u6027 \u5f97 \u8d85 \u4e4e \u60f3 \u50cf \u3002
\u4ed6 \u8209 \u51fa \u7684 \u4f8b \u5b50 \u5305 \u62ec \uff0c \u8fd1 \u5e74 \u7f8e \u570b \u5e74 \u8f15 \u4eba \uff0c \u4ee5 \u53e3 \u4ea4 \u5f62 \u5f0f \u9032 \u884c \u6027 \u884c \u70ba \u6210 \u98a8 \uff1b CEO \u7684 \u85aa \u916c \u9054 \u5929 \u6587 \u6578 \u5b57 \uff1b \u5927 \u57ce \u5e02 <\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\u5973 \u591a \u7537 \u5c11 \uff0c \u4ee5 \u53ca \u8fa6 \u516c \u5ba4 \u7279 \u5225 \u591a \u9592 \u8a00 \u9592 \u8a9e \u7b49 \u73fe \u8c61 \uff0c \u5168 \u90fd \u662f \u4eba \u985e \u7406 \u6027 \u884c \u70ba \u7684 \u7d50 \u679c \u3002 \u6dfb \u54e5 \u6587 \u7b46 \u751f \u52d5 \uff0c \u8aaa \u670d \u529b \u5f37 \uff0c \u65e9 \u524d \u7684 \u8457 \u4f5c \uff0c \u5176 \u4e2d \u6587 \u7248 \u540d \u70ba \u300a <\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\u5e95 \u7d93 \u6fdf \u5b78 \u300b \uff0c \u5df2 \u662f \u8cde \u5fc3 \u6085 \u76ee \u4e4b \u4f5c \uff0c \u65b0 \u66f8 \u66f4 \u5c07 \u8da3 \u5473 \u7d93 \u6fdf \u5b78 \u518d \u767c \u63da \u5149 \u5927 \u3002<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\n

\u5bb6 \u96fb \u633d \u6551 \u5c0b \u6b7b \u5a66 \u5973<\/h3>\n

\u6dfb \u54e5 \u5c31 \u7537 \u5973 \u95dc \u4fc2 \u7684 \u8ab2 \u984c \uff0c \u63d0 \u51fa \u9032 \u4e00 \u6b65 \u7684 \u898b \u89e3 \u3002 \u4ed6 \u8aaa \uff0c \u81ea \u4e94 \u5341 \u5e74 \u4ee3 \u958b \u59cb \uff0c \u5bb6 \u5c45 \u751f \u6d3b \u81ea \u52d5 \u5316 \uff0c \u6d17 \u8863 \u6a5f \u548c \u71a8 \u6597 \u9678 \u7e8c \u9762 \u4e16 \uff0c \u4eba \u985e \u7684 \u751f \u6d3b \u5f97 \u4ee5 \u6539 \u5584 \uff0c \u540c \u6642 \u5a66 \u5973 \u7684 \u81ea \u6bba \u7387 \u986f \u8457 \u4e0b \u964d \uff0c \u6dfb \u54e5 \u8aaa \uff0c \u9019 \u4e26 \u975e \u5de7 \u5408 \u3002 \u4ee5 \u5f80 \u7684 \u5bb6 \u52d9 \u672a \u81f3 \u65bc \u8f9b \u82e6 \u5230 \u8feb \u5a66 \u5973 \u5c0b \u6b7b \u5427 \uff1f
\u6dfb \u54e5 \u6709 \u53e6 \u4e00 \u500b \u89e3 \u91cb \uff0c \u6d17 \u8863 \u6a5f \u548c \u71a8 \u6597 \u672a \u767c \u660e \u4e4b \u524d \uff0c \u5a66 \u5973 \u6bcf \u5929 \u70ba \u4e86 \u505a \u5bb6 \u52d9 \u800c \u7121 \u6687 \u5916 \u51fa \u5de5 \u4f5c \uff0c \u7121 \u6cd5 \u81ea \u7acb \uff0c \u82e5 \u679c \u4e0d \u5e78 \u5730 \uff0c \u5a5a \u59fb \u95dc \u4fc2 \u767c \u5c55 \u5230 \u7121 \u85e5 \u53ef \u6551 \u7684 \u5730 \u6b65 \uff0c \u96e2 \u5a5a \u5728 \u7576 \u6642 \u7b49 \u65bc \u300c \u7d93 \u6fdf \u81ea \u6bba \u300d \u3002 \u5bb6 \u5c45 \u81ea \u52d5 \u5316 \u4e4b \u5f8c \uff0c \u5a66 \u5973 \u6709 \u7a7a \u6687 \u6295 \u5165 \u793e \u6703 \u5de5 \u4f5c \uff0c \u8ca1 \u653f \u80fd \u529b \u5f97 \u4ee5 \u63d0 \u9ad8 \uff0c \u5982 \u679c \u4e0d \u5e78 \u5a5a \u59fb \u751f \u6d3b \u4e0d \u6109 \u5feb \uff0c \u53ef \u4ee5 \u9078 \u64c7 \u96e2 \u5a5a \uff0c \u96e2 \u5a5a \u8207 \u81ea \u6bba \u4e4b \u9593 \u4efb \u9078 \uff0c \u96e2 \u5a5a \u662f \u7406 \u6027 \u7684 \u9078 \u64c7 \u3002 \u6dfb \u54e5 \u7684 \u770b \u6cd5 \u6709 \u6642 \u53ef \u80fd \u592a \u5e02 \u5108 \uff0c \u4f46 \u4ed6 \u7684 \u66f8 \u53ef \u4ee5 \u70ba \u4f60 \u5e36 \u4f86 \u53e6 \u985e \u89d2 \u5ea6 \u7684 \u601d \u8003 \u7a7a \u9593 \u3002 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u9f8d\u5ac2\u807d\u4e86\u6211\u7684\u721b gag "\u9999\u8549", "\u516c\u4ed4\u9eb5" \u4e4b\u5f8c, \u5979\u4e5f\u627e\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[67],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-life","post-wrapper","thrv_wrapper"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3oEVO-1rl","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lungchuntin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5539","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lungchuntin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lungchuntin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lungchuntin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lungchuntin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5539"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lungchuntin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5539\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lungchuntin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5539"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lungchuntin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5539"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lungchuntin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5539"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}